FFAW Calls for Minister to Scrap PA in 2026 Management as DFO Assessment Signals More Pain for 3K, 2J and 3Ps Harvesters

February 24, 2026

ST. JOHN’S, NL – Today’s technical briefing from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Science Department has left harvesters in Newfoundland and Labrador demanding a complete overhaul of the snow crab assessment process. FFAW-Unifor is calling on the federal government to re-run the model removing pots with predators, show results of the trap and trawl surveys separately, and abandon the use of the Precautionary Approach framework for 2026 management decisions.

“The precautionary approach model is misleading and underscores the need to revisit how this PA is calculated and applied to Newfoundland and Labrador’s vital snow crab fishery,” says Dwan Street, President of FFAW-Unifor. “Such a failure in a federal scientific process must be immediately addressed due to the catastrophic economic impacts this modeling has on management decisions.”

While the assessment continues to show strong exploitable biomass in 3LNO, with 3LNO in the “healthy” zone of the PA and 3Ps and 2HJ in the “cautious” zone, DFO reported that 3K is now considered to be in the “critical zone.” These status zones are based in part on projecting forward landings that will not be allowed given that assessed status, harvesters are not allowed to carry-forward status quo landings when there is a change in stock status.

The tone of DFO’s science advice has also shifted, with officials now stating that “under status quo removals” areas are in a given status zone, rather than projected to be there, despite the fact that maintaining true status quo removals is not permitted under existing regulations and management rules.

“The status in 3K is based, in part, on a prediction that cannot happen. We are also deeply frustrated that this management approach contributes to extreme volatility in how DFO applies the PA and sets quotas for the data. The situation has become untenable and is continuing to harm the economic sustainability of the owner-operator fleet,” Street emphasizes.

In 3Ps, the stock moved from the healthy zone to the cautious zone. Recent declines in biomass, higher exploitation rates, and the inability to land the full allocation signal problems that need to be addressed before they worsen.

Harsh swings in 3K offshore “no way to run a fishery”

For harvesters in 3K, particularly in the offshore 3K4 area, the practical outcome of recent assessments and PA guidance has been extreme volatility in quotas from year to year.

“We are deeply frustrated by the fluctuations in the 3K offshore quotas. In 2022 we had a 40% increase, the following year we had another 20% increase. That was followed by a 17% decrease in 2024, and a 25% decrease last year. Now here we are looking at another significant cut,” says Tony Ward, 3K4 harvester and member of FFAW-Unifor’s crab committee. “When the PA was being developed harvesters talked about wanting to smooth out the peaks and valleys, that’s still the goal. I think we need to figure out how to smooth out the peaks and valleys, because this is no way to run a fishery.”

Given that the PA dictates the exploitation rate for all crab management areas within an assessment division, the swings in 3K4 affect how the inshore is managed.

Predation pressure in 2J and 3K being overlooked

Crab harvesters and their Union have repeatedly raised concerns about how growing groundfish populations affect both the fishery and the assessment, particularly in offshore 3K and 2J, and the fact that this is not properly captured in the current PA framework or DFO’s assessment. Cod, skate, and wolffish are all known to prey on crab and are increasingly common in traps in both the commercial fishery and the post-season survey in offshore areas of 2J and 3K, affecting both catch rates and survey indices that feed into stock assessments.

“We are not seeing the abundance of predators in inshore 3K that are obvious in 3K4, which is the offshore crab management area in 3K. This matters because if cod or skate are eating bait, entering the traps or feeding on crab, they will drive down catch rates in both the fishery and in the pot survey,” explains inshore 3K harvester Byron Oxford.

A similar pattern of predation-driven declines has been documented in 2J, where crab stocks began to struggle under intense groundfish pressure even earlier than in 3K.

“Cod predation in 2J goes back for quite some time. As the water got warmer, we started losing our shellfish and crab, and the reason why is that the temperature is just right for codfish. The codfish in this area is abundant compared to what it was years ago,” said 2J Harvester Alton Rumboldt. “It’s very frustrating for fish harvesters that DFO did not discuss impacts of predation in their media release even though there was a lot of discussion at the assessment.”

Questioning DFO’s prediction models and data use

While the overall exploitable biomass of Newfoundland and Labrador snow crab increased from historic lows in 2016–2018 and remained high over the past five years, however, DFO is once again projecting declines in exploitable biomass over the next three years, heavily informed by indices of pre-recruits and cold-water conditions—factors that have driven inaccurate forecasts in the past.

“The risks of DFO’s overreliance on pre-recruit and climate-based prediction models is concerning, given that they missed the mark when projecting declines in 2017 and 2018. It is abundantly clear that we need to find a way forward that recognizes uncertainty in their projections given past projections,” says FFAW-Unifor Secretary-Treasurer Jamie Baker.

FFAW-Unifor is deeply frustrated the projections do not consider how changing predator dynamics affect snow crab and their assessment—important observations and research priorities from the fishery that were identified after the 2025 assessment—and instead return to their pre-recruit index.

FFAW-Unifor demands meaningful change

FFAW-Unifor is formally requesting that DFO:

• Immediately scrap use of the PA framework in 2026 management decisions for snow crab
• Initiate a comprehensive review and revision of the NL Snow Crab PA Framework for 2HJ3KLNOP4R, including an examination of harvest decision rules, status definitions based on “status quo removals,” and how uncertainty and predation are incorporated.
• Immediately re-run the model removing pots with predators.
• Immediately release the data from trap and trawl surveys (something that has been repeatedly requested and refused by DFO).
• Improve assessment and prediction models by integrating harvester knowledge, better accounting for predation, and revisiting the weight placed on pre-recruits and climate indices that have led to flawed long-term forecasts in the past.
• Develop management approaches that reduce extreme year-to-year quota swings to support stability for harvesters, plant workers, and coastal communities.

“Any quota decisions for 2026 must recognize the already severe economic strain on fleets in these divisions and the role of predation in reducing catch rates. Harvesters have done everything that has been asked of them, but they cannot plan their lives or their businesses around a management system that lurches from crisis to crisis. We cannot have 2026 management decisions based on such a volatile and unjustified assessment process,” concludes Street.