2J3KL Cod Assessment Highlights DFO’s Failure to Predict Stock Status & Harm Harvesters’ Livelihoods

ST. JOHN’S, NL – Today’s technical briefing from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) on the 2J3KL Northern Cod stock assessment revealed an upward revision of the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) estimate from last year but DFO continued to predict declines.

“We have excellent recruitment and fishing mortality remains very low,” says FFAW-Unifor Secretary-Treasurer Jason Spingle. “The data shows a thriving stock, but DFO’s projections don’t match what harvesters are seeing.”  Recruitment has returned to pre-1990s levels—yet DFO inexplicably projects a future decline in growth.

The stock is now at twice the Limit Reference Point (LRP) in the Precautionary Approach (PA) framework, which should place it in the healthy zone based on the standard metrics in DFO’s Precautionary Approach Framework. 

“Despite the positive indicators—no increase in fishing mortality despite higher removals, and a low fishing mortality rate overall—DFO’s cautious outlook fails to acknowledge the stock’s potential,” Spingle says.

The upward biomass revision highlights a costly flaw in DFO’s process. For 3K harvesters, this revision underscores a recurring issue: DFO’s pattern of underestimating stock health, only to correct it the following year as if millions of dollars in lost opportunities for inshore fishers are inconsequential. These revisions erode trust in federal fisheries science and management. 

“This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about livelihoods,” says Wayne Hicks, fish harvester from 3K who participated in the assessment process. “DFO Science shrugs off these errors as inconsequential, but in reality these mistakes are costing our communities millions of dollars,” Hicks says.

“There’s plenty of room for economic return to Newfoundland and Labrador’s inshore fishery,” Spingle says. “Most cod harvesters only managed a few trips last season and, in line with the health of the stock, have the capacity to greatly increase the amount harvested by our community-based fleets.”

FFAW is demanding that DFO overhaul its approach, protect the spawning stock from offshore factory-freezer trawlers, and ensure management decisions reflect the fishery’s healthy status and economic potential for coastal communities. FFAW-Unifor remains committed to securing the promised 115,000-tonne allocation for inshore and Indigenous harvesters and will continue pressing DFO to deliver a fishery that works for Newfoundland and Labrador, not against it. 

Attending the assessment on behalf of FFAW-Unifor were Alton Rumbolt (2J), Steve Ryan (3L), Wayne Hicks (3K), and Fisheries Scientist Dr. Erin Carruthers.