Positive Outlook for Capelin in Latest Stock Assessment, But DFO Forecasts Continue to Miss the Mark

FFAW-Unifor is encouraged by the positive outlook for 2J3KL capelin coming out of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ latest stock assessment, with favourable environmental conditions, more capelin showing up in the stomachs of predators, earlier spawning timing, and increasing numbers of age three fish in the spawning stock biomass. Those improvements line up with what fish harvesters have been seeing on the water and with the year-over-year increases observed in DFO’s acoustic surveys.

At the same time, questions remain about the forecasting model used by DFO. In recent years, the model has significantly underestimated capelin biomass. For 2024, the model projected capelin biomass at 330,000 tonnes, while the acoustic survey estimate came in at 647,000 tonnes. The following year, the model predicted a drop to 214,000 tonnes, yet the 2025 survey estimate was 766,000 tonnes — more than three times the forecast.

DFO has noted that the projection represents a minimum biomass estimate, acknowledging that the model does not capture all components of the stock. The repeated gap between projections and survey results has raised questions about the scientific basis for continuing to rely on the current model.

Looking ahead to management decisions, harvesters have also raised concerns about how the forecast may be used when setting the Total Allowable Catch (TAC). While the projection is considered a minimum estimate, there are concerns that the model could still influence decision-making despite the strong signals coming from the acoustic surveys and from observations on the water.

“It was great to see DFO’s acoustic survey reflect what harvesters have been seeing: year-over-year increases in capelin biomass,” said fish harvester Ivan Batten. “I hope the improvements we’re seeing in the acoustic survey—and certainly not the projection model—are what guide management decisions going forward,” Batten added.

Management decisions must reflect the best available information, especially when both survey results and what is being seen on the water point to improving conditions for 2J3KL capelin.