WHAT’S UP WITH 3K CRAB?
March 12, 2025
The 2HJ3KLNOP4R crab assessment took place in February and was followed up with an advisory process during which harvesters and the FFAW had the opportunity to ask questions to better understand assessment results. The assessment results for 3K were far out of line with results from the 2024 fishery.
How did this happen? We believe the new assessment approach, combining trawl and trap data, contributed to the lack of review and understanding of what was driving assessment results for 3K. We recognize that this decision was made at the meeting by all assessment participants, including FFAW staff and harvesters, but the combined index makes it much more difficult to assess and understand trends. The combined index also makes it more difficult to identify when the trends differ, which was the case in 3K.
When 3K harvesters saw the assessment results, alarm bells sounded. The results would mean a 49% quota cut in order to be compliant with the Precautionary Approach. What harvesters saw in the fishery in 2024 was catch rates above the long-term average (see the Catch per Unit Effort chart below, as presented by DFO Science).
Because of the huge mismatch between assessment results and the reality of the fishery, we began to ask questions and eventually received the trap and trawl biomass indices.
Data from the trawl and trap surveys are used to assess the health of the crab stocks off NL. In past assessments, DFO presented the trawl biomass estimate and the trap biomass estimate separately. Importantly, the trends from these two data sources were similar in past years. That is no longer the case in 3K.
The exploitable biomass index from the trawl survey was less than 50% of the biomass index from the trap survey in 2024 (see chart below).
We argue that the trawl survey index is (1) not consistent with other indices and (2) is driving the take-home message from the stock assessment for 3K, and therefore management outcomes.
There was a minimal decline in catch rates and catch rates remained above the long-term average in 2024. The exploitable biomass index from the trap survey in 2024 was almost the same as 2023; it declined by only 2-3%. These changes do not warrant a 49% cut.